Revenue Consensus Rolling Historical Forecasts
W
Wenge Butterfly
The revenue consensus average plot is incorrectly displaying fixed target years rather than historical rolling forecasts, making the data misleading and less useful for trend analysis.
Current Behavior:
Plot labels show "revenues consensus average (FY1E)", "revenues consensus average (FY2E)", etc.
All datapoints across history show consensus estimates for the same fixed target years (FY 2026, FY 2027, etc.)
Example: Both 2020 and 2021 datapoints show estimates for FY 2026
Expected Behavior:
Plot should show rolling historical consensus where each datapoint represents what analysts predicted X years ahead from that specific point in time
Labels should show actual target years like "revenues consensus average (FY 2026)" for clarity.
I would also like to see the rolling x-year ahead consensus, for example:
For a "3-year ahead consensus" line:
2000 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2003
2001 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2004
2020 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2023
2021 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2024
Is it possible to plot the rolling x-year ahead estimated sales CAGR?
Thanks in advance!
Conor MacNeil
Merged in a post:
Revenue Consensus Plot Shows Fixed Target Years Instead of Rolling Historical Forecasts
W
Wenge Butterfly
The revenue consensus average plot is incorrectly displaying fixed target years rather than historical rolling forecasts, making the data misleading and less useful for trend analysis.
Current Behavior:
Plot labels show "revenues consensus average (FY1E)", "revenues consensus average (FY2E)", etc.
All datapoints across history show consensus estimates for the same fixed target years (FY 2026, FY 2027, etc.)
Example: Both 2020 and 2021 datapoints show estimates for FY 2026
Expected Behavior:
Plot should show rolling historical consensus where each datapoint represents what analysts predicted X years ahead from that specific point in time
Labels should show actual target years like "revenues consensus average (FY 2026)" for clarity
I would also like to see the rolling x-year ahead consensus, for example:
For a "3-year ahead consensus" line:
2000 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2003
2001 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2004
2020 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2023
2021 datapoint → analyst estimates for 2024
Is it possible to plot such a metric?
Is it possible to plot the rolling x-year ahead estimated sales CAGR?
Thanks in advance!
Conor MacNeil
Hi Alberto, migrating this to feedback as it works as intended and isn't a bug. The FY1E estimate is accurate historically, it shows the estimate 1Y out from a given point in time.
We don't support what you are asking for, but will look into it.
W
Wenge Butterfly
Conor MacNeil That is not correct.
See the example for META below in the screenshot. If what you say is correct the revenue NTM and the revenue FY1E should be very similar at least for one quarter per year. But as you can see they are completely different. And that is because FY1E is actually FY2025 estimate!
The FY1E today shows the the estimate for FY2025 but the FY1E at any other given point in time still shows estimate for FY2025.
Please I invite you to consider this carefully and mark it as a bug.
Conor MacNeil
Wenge Butterfly: Hi Alberto, respectfully this is correct and works as intended. I understand the point you are making, but it's more so a product related inquiry, not a bug.
The NTM value and FY are not identical measures.
Firstly, NTM is for the next twelve months (or four quarters). FY1E refers to a fiscal year.
- For example, suppose a company just released Q2 2025 results. The NTM would cover Q3 2025, Q4 2025, and next year's Q1 2026 and Q2 2026.
- The FY1E would be for 2025 as a full year.
Whatsmore, even when the same four quarters are aligned between an NTM and FY estimate, the underlying data is not identical.
The summation of four quarters of estimates is four separate estimates, while the FY estimate is a single estimate. They are not apples to apples. Analysts provide estimates for both quarters and full years.
You can test this by going to actuals and consensus, and showing the additional estimate data (settings) and viewing the FY estimate vs the sum of the quarterly estimates.